The Daily 202: Are some Trump supporters ashamed to acknowledge it when a pollster …

December 21, 2015 - accent chair


— Donald Trump fares improved in online and programmed polls than in some-more normal surveys conducted by live callers. A slight nonetheless statistically poignant cove has stubbornly persisted over a 6 months given a billionaire Republican upended a competition for a White House.

Dartmouth domestic scientist Kyle Dropp thinks “social appropriateness bias” is during play. In other words, people are fearful to tell another tellurian being that they support a Republican because, even nonetheless they like him, they know about his argumentative statements and do not wish to be judged negatively.

This has happened before. Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger, for example, both underperformed in a polls when they were regulating for administrator of California since a certain shred of a citizens did not wish to publicly support an actor. (Reagan is noticed unequivocally differently currently than he was in 1966.)

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Dropp, executive executive of polling for Morning Consult, conducted a tranquil examine final week to try that kinds of Republicans and right-leaning independents respond differently to an programmed call, an Internet consult and a genuine chairman on a other finish of a line.

Overall, Trump pulled 38 percent in a Internet check and 32 percent in a live-caller poll. Jeb Bush, in contrast, garnered a same commission online as on a phone. Most of a disproportion can be chalked adult to preparation and engagement.

“Among adults with a bachelor’s grade or postgraduate degree, Trump performs about 10 commission points improved online than around live telephone,” Dropp writes this morning on a Consult. “And, among adults with some college, Trump performs some-more than 10 commission points improved online. Conversely, Republicans with a high propagandize preparation or reduction adored Trump on a phone over online.

“There was also a separate between intent electorate — people who contend they are unequivocally meddlesome in a election, or have formerly voted in primaries or midterms — and a ubiquitous purebred voter population,” he continues. “Trump’s advantage in online polls compared with live write polling has a widespread of 8 to 9 commission points among these intent voters.” (See a methodology here.)

— Generally, Trump performs many improved among those who are reduction prepared and reduction informed. These blue-collar voters, like everybody else, are approaching to have friends with identical backgrounds and views. Because support for Trump is widespread, there is reduction of a amicable tarnish in subsidy him. Indeed, it competence be a badge of honor.

Interestingly, Ben Carson tends to perform better in live-caller polls than in online polls. Social scientists trust this competence be explained by Republicans who are fervent to demonstrate, when vocalization to another chairman on a phone, that they can support an African American claimant for president. But they maybe don’t feel vigour to do that when they understand that their response will be some-more anonymous.

The Post’s in-house polling guru, Scott Clement, conspicuous other explanations should be deliberate for a dissimilarity in Trump’s numbers, “such as opposite ways respondents hear and examination response options or a spin of bid respondents give to responding questions with a live interviewer providing proclivity vs. an programmed or web survey.”

“The large doubt is that mode is ‘correct,’ or improved reflects respondents’ loyal support,” Clement emails.

A Trump mouthpiece did not respond to a ask for comment.

— This is a tellurian trend: Henry Olsen, a comparison associate during a Ethics and Public Policy Center, says that anti-immigration, working-class parties in Europe also do improved in online polls than live-caller ones. “Support for immigration and globalization are maybe a usually domestic sentiments that combine elites from both business and a academy, from right and left,” Olsen wrote in The Atlantic recently. “Openly ancillary an anti-immigration claimant can risk amicable opprobrium, ridicule, or worse. In other words, for any organisation of outspoken Trump supporters, there are substantially a lot some-more who usually don’t publicize it.”

— Not picked adult in any of a forms of polling: Trump’s lagging organization. “A successful belligerent diversion is essential in Iowa since of a state’s difficult process of congress voting, nonetheless a Trump discuss has lagged in reaching some of a possess benchmarks,” a New York Times’ Trip Gabriel reports. “Mr. Trump’s Iowa executive approaching that he would partisan a personality for any of a state’s 1,681 Republican precincts by Thanksgiving. Instead, a initial critical training eventuality for patrol leaders, heavily promoted in emails and discussion calls, drew usually about 80 people to West Des Moines final weekend, with about 50 participating online. … Mr. Trump has about 15 paid Iowa staff members, compared with 36 operative for a ‘super PAC’ ancillary Ben Carson that is organizing in his interest in Iowa.” Before a 2008 caucuses, Barack Obama had over 200 paid staff members in some-more than 60 offices opposite Iowa. Bloomberg’s John McCormick reports from Iowa this morning that Trump supporters competence need reduction superintendence on how to congress than widely assumed.

— The comment – Evangelical elites coalescing behind Cruz over Rubio: Tom Hamburger scoops details of a post-Christmas shelter for Cruz with some-more than 100 devout leaders drifting in to Cisco, Tex., on Dec. 28. The eventuality includes a convene and unison nonetheless also hours of closed-door visiting time for Cruz with heading eremite broadcasters, megachurch ministers and pastors from early states. The Cisco fly-in is one of 3 delicately designed meetings that are already boosting Cruz with a vicious subdivision that he believes can make a disproportion for him in Iowa, South Carolina and a infancy of a states voting and caucusing on Super Tuesday. The Texas senator won a subsidy of a pivotal devout bloc after a tip Dec. 7 assembly in that tip inhabitant activists concluded to hurl out a tide of endorsements, many timed for limit impact between now and Mar 1.


— A automobile plowed into pedestrians on a path on a Las Vegas Strip final night, murdering one chairman and injuring 37, 6 critically. The Review-Journal reports that a lady — in her 20’s, apparently from Oregon and pushing a 1996 Oldsmobile — was arrested shortly after a pile-up after journey a scene. The emissary troops arch conspicuous terrorism has been ruled out but that the pile-up is being investigated as intentional. “Police are removing a aver for a blood test, nonetheless (they said) she wasn’t exhibiting impassioned impairment,” a R-J relays. “A 3-year-old toddler in a automobile with a motorist was unharmed.”

Miss Universe horde Steve Harvey announced Miss Colombia as a pageant’s winner, nonetheless it was indeed Miss PhilippinesIt led to a uncanny finale where Miss Colombia had to take off a climax after she suspicion she won. The screw-up is a uncanny arrange of clearance for Trump, who solitary control of a manifestation after NBC and Univision cut ties with him in June.

Watch a looks on everyone’s faces in this 90-second video:


Trump took advantage of a moment:

— The Wall Street Journal reports that Iranian hackers infiltrated a control complement of a small dam reduction than 20 miles from New York City dual years ago. “America’s energy grid, factories, pipelines, bridges and dams — all primary targets for digital armies — are sitting mostly defenceless on a Internet,” writes Danny Yadron. “The 2013 dam penetrate highlighted another plea for America’s digital defenses: a haze of cyberwar. Amid a brew of three-letter agencies, misleading Internet addresses and manners ruling domestic surveillance, U.S. officials during initial weren’t means to establish where a hackers had infiltrated…. Hackers are believed to have gained entrance to a dam by a mobile modem…. Two people informed with a occurrence conspicuous a outline refers to a Bowman Avenue Dam, a small structure used for inundate control nearby Rye, N.Y…. Investigators conspicuous hackers didn’t take control of a dam nonetheless probed a system.”

— All schools in Nashua, N.H., are sealed today because of a “detailed” hazard of assault finished against both of a city’s high schools, the Union Leader reports.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party mislaid a infancy in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, buffeted by high stagnation and crime probes. Rajoy’s jubilee still won a many seats nonetheless got usually 29 percent of a vote, with newer, anti-austerity Podemos nabbing 20 percent. Rajoy conspicuous he would try to form a government. (The Telegraph)


  1. FIFA criminialized President Sepp Blatter and UEFA President Michel Platini from soccer for 8 years for countless ethics violations. (AP)
  2. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will supplement a African lion to the endangered category list. (Amy Ellis Nutt)
  3. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” warranted $238 million in a U.S. this weekend, violation a all-time record set progressing this year by “Jurassic World.” (Michael Cavna)
  4. A 20-year-old masculine concerned in a gang rape of a lady on a train in India was expelled from jail after usually 3 years. (CNN)
  5. Israel is believed to be obliged for murdering scandalous Lebanese militant Samir Kuntar in an airstrike. (Ruth Eglash and Hugh Naylor)
  6. Israeli Vice Premier Silvan Shalom, a maestro of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, quiescent amid allegations that he has intimately tormented many women via his domestic career. (AP)
  7. The State Department concluded to omit Oman’s bad human-rights record in sell for a country’s support of a Iran chief deal, Reuters reports.


  1. Two additional Bernie Sanders staffers were dangling while an inner examination investigates how a discuss accessed voter information collected by the Clinton campaign. (John Wagner)
  2. Rep. Richard Hanna (R-N.Y.) will retire successive year after completing his third term, giving Democrats a primary pickup opportunity. (Syracuse Post-Standard)
  3. New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, the RGA chair who was buzzed about in years upheld as a VP prospect, apologized for her staff throwing a unruly hotel jubilee and for her rude behavior to troops officers called to investigate. (Niraj Chokshi)
  4. Jimmy Carter’s 28-year-old grandson Jeremy died. He had not been feeling good Saturday so lay down to take a nap. When he did not wake up, his mom checked on him and found that his heart had stopped. (AP)


Trump said on ABC there is no proof Vladimir Putin has killed enemies or journalists, fortifying his regard for and endorsement from Russia’s president. (Jose A. DelReal)

Rand Paul called on Marco Rubio to resign over his deplorable assemblage record in a Senate, including skipping last week’s large opinion on the spending bill. The comment, on CNN, came in response to Rubio criticizing Paul for seeking reelection in a Senate while posterior a GOP nomination.

Jeb Bush insisted on CBS that he “hated” being a GOP front-runner and that he is some-more gentle ranking reduce in a polls since it means reduction scrutiny.


— Low ratings, as expected: The ABC discuss got a 6.0 domicile rating. The before Democratic debate, on CBS, got a 6.1 domicile rating, that alike to about 8.5 million viewers. Here’s a discuss summarized in 3 minutes.

— Hillary Clinton was late removing behind on theatre after a blurb mangle because a Martin O’Malley assistance was regulating a solitary lavatory backstage. “What viewers didn’t know was a solitary women’s lavatory was a tiny serve than a men’s room from a stage,” the Boston Globe’s Annie Linskey reports. “And when a discuss went to a prolonged blurb mangle Clinton mislaid out to Lis Smith, a caffeine-guzzling emissary discuss manager for O’Malley.… A tip Clinton staffer who was strategically posted outward a lavatory (presumably to equivocate these kinds of situations) gave Smith a written OK to make a discerning array stop, according to one chairman informed with a ladies’ line. … When Clinton finally returned, judge David Muir was already seeking another claimant a question. But a assembly applauded as a front-runner walked adult to her earlier dull podium.”

 Trump criticized her for being off (not unequivocally “presidential,” he claimed):


Sanders complained on a Sunday shows that a DNC scheduled debates during times where there would be fewer viewers to help Clinton. (John Wagner)

Republicans pounded Clinton for suggesting that a administration’s devise against ISIS is profitable dividends. Chris Christie called Clinton “Ms. Happy Talk,” observant she wants to usually speak her approach to a presidency. Trump faulted Clinton for suggestions ISIS supporters featured Trump in a recruitment video (they have not, nonetheless some have used his tongue to foster their agenda, says a Post Fact Checker)

DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz says she got “a tiny carried away” during a debate:



— “Smart devise or overconfidence? Rubio plays hard-to-get with voters,” by Sean Sullivan and Karen Tumulty: “Marco ­Rubio no doubt wants to lay behind a large table in a Oval Office. What is not so transparent is how tough he is peaceful to work to get there. Republican activists — including many who conclude Rubio’s challenging domestic gifts and perspective him as a party’s best wish for violence Clinton — contend they are dumbfounded during his ostensible contempt for a day-to-day grub of sell politics. Even some fixed supporters are anxious. ‘Rubio has not put in a face time that he unequivocally needs to have, we don’t think,’ conspicuous Al Phillips, an successful South Carolina priest who backs Rubio. ‘I cruise that’s been rather to his detriment.’ That competence be, as some of his allies tatter privately, a pointer of overconfidence in his possess abilities… “Rubio’s relations insusceptibility toward courtship pivotal activists contrasts with his zeal to land tip donors. His benefactors report him as permitted and warm. … He recently cumulative support from billionaire sidestep comment managers Paul Singer and Kenneth Griffin. He’s believed to be a favorite to win over billionaire casino lord Sheldon Adelson.”

“The Loyalty Effect” – “Justices tend to determine with presidents that collect them — nonetheless wandering later,” by Robert Barnes: “Most members of a probity make some-more decisions auspicious to a boss who brought them to a dance than they do to successive presidents, even those of a same party, according to a new examine by dual distinguished Supreme Court experts. The law professors contend what they call a ‘loyalty effect’ is transparent even when other factors such as beliefs and a personal attribute with a appointing boss are taken into account. … That means that Democratic justices are reduction approaching to opinion for successive Democratic presidents, while a rate of opposite for Republican nominees and successive Republican presidents is not as pronounced. … Judicial autonomy is a buttress of American democracy, nonetheless politics plays a critical purpose in how a probity gets his or her job.”

They competence quote a Koran, nonetheless they’re usually thugs – “The Islamic State creates a new form of jihadist: Part terrorist, partial gangster,” by Anthony Faiola and Souad Mekhennet: “The Islamic State is constructing an army of loyalists from Europe that includes an augmenting series of transport toughs and ex-cons as a inlet of radicalization evolves in a epoch of a Caliphate. Rather than leave behind lives of crime, some adherents are regulating their unlawful talents to financial recruiting rings and transport costs for unfamiliar fighters even as their backgrounds give them potentially easier entrance to income and weapons, posing a new kind of plea to European authorities. … The design now rising of a Islamic State’s machinations in Europe is graphic from a expansion of al-Qaeda, that relied heavily in a early years on evidently divine recruits and rich unfamiliar sponsors.”

Big reversal for Big Oil – “As preference nears, antithesis builds to offshore drilling along Atlantic Coast,” by Joby Warrick in Virginia Beach: “When then-Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R) initial pushed a thought in 2010, it was easy to find Virginians who adored oil and gas drilling along a Virginia coast, even in this tourism-dependent city of 450,000. The city legislature voted 8 to 3 that year in support of a hulk offshore rigs, betting, along with a mayor, that ‘there’s going to be income made.’ But that was before a Deepwater Horizon oil brief in a Gulf of Mexico and before oil prices began their ancestral slide. At a Dec assembly dual weeks ago, a same city legislature abruptly topsy-turvy course, voting to revoke a 2010 fortitude after some of a city’s biggest business alliances campaigned opposite drilling. … “The Obama administration is approaching to finalize by early open a devise that could concede singular oil and gas expansion off a coasts of 4 Southeastern states —Virginia, North and South Carolina, and Georgia. All 4 have heavily upheld drilling in a past. But lately, insurgency to a devise appears to be growing, quite in coastal towns where politicians and business leaders are expressing doubts about either oil and gas can broach a mercantile advantages a industry’s backers claim.”

Rhode Island’s beginner administrator is a rising star, a Democrat willing to take on Big Labor though antagonizing state employees. The Post’s editorial page editor, Fred Hiatt, today contrasts Gina Raimondo’s willingness to take on tough problems with the congressional gusto for flitting a buck. Four pivotal paragraphs:

  • “Raimondo stands out on a series of counts: a Democrat inaugurated in a year when even Massachusetts was selecting a Republican governor; a woman, when 44 states are led by men; maybe oddest of all, a Democratic reformer of state pensions. During 4 years as state treasurer, Raimondo murderous Rhode Island’s open worker unions, nonetheless she nonetheless went on to win a 2014 Democratic primary for administrator and a ubiquitous election.”
  • “After 18 months of negotiations, roughly all of a unions agreed this year to a probity allotment that preserves many of a reform. And Raimondo’s first budget destined many of a assets (about $300 million per year) to programs that will assistance a successive generation, including some-more prekindergarten classes, propagandize construction and a grant comment for village college students.”
  • “Raimondo, who is subsidy Hillary Clinton for president, doesn’t try to sell electorate on mercantile shortcoming for a possess sake. She says she wants a Democratic Party to be a jubilee of expansion and innovation, to be pro-business and pro-government.”
  • “Rhode Island is small (just over 1 million people), and maybe politics that work there can’t work on a incomparable stage. Still, we can’t assistance wishing that a bit of her truth competence massage off on Washington: ‘Don’t omit large problems,” she says, “and don’t try to fake that problems are smaller than they are.’”

— Pictures of a day:

Post sportswriter Dan Steinberg chided Redskins ubiquitous manager Scot McCloughan “for being so damn buttoned adult all a time.” McCloughan was celebrating a Redskins 35-25 victory over a Buffalo Bills:


Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker (R) shows off a Victorian Christmas festival in Canton:


Blaine Boyd, a initial lady’s executive of correspondence,will be showing how FLOTUS “shares holiday cheer” around a nation for a successive 12 days:


The Hubble Space Telescope sends behind this picture of a “globular cluster” famous as Terzan 1, a “home for aged stars.” About 20,000 light years divided from Earth, its one of 150 such clusters in a Milky Way.


— Tweets of a day: Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards (D), who is regulating for Senate, remembers a Montgomery train boycott:

“These are a people that Big Men Donald Trump and Chris Christie are fearful of,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) tweeted with this:

Post domestic editor Dan Eggen found a video travesty of Trump articulate with a British accent:

— Instagrams of a day:

White House photographer Pete Souza has a impulse with some Star Wars friends:


Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) cuts off Chris Christie’s immature wrist-band now that a former is giveaway of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. The dual campaigned together in New Hampshire this weekend:



— New York Times, “Ted Cruz sharpens tinge while on tour, in curtsy to Donald Trump,” by Matt Flegenheimer: “As he vaults toward a tip of a Republican presidential field, heading some Iowa polls and climbing nationally, Mr. Cruz has taken caring to enrich Donald J. Trump during any opportunity. And in a throes of a seven-day, 12-city pitch to denote strength over a early-voting states, Mr. Cruz’s adulation seems during times to have taken a new form: imitation. In ways cosmetic and substantive, Mr. Cruz has in new days seemed to some-more closely resemble a masculine he has been chasing — or, some-more precisely, sensitively drafting behind — for months. …  Perhaps many notably, Mr. Cruz has sensory his already formidable language, fervent to keep his possess reason on renouned annoy opposite a domestic class, and to denote regressive virginity amid attacks from Rubio over immigration and inhabitant confidence policies. He has coined a new phrase, ‘undocumented Democrats,’ to report those in a nation illegally, and beefed adult sections of his branch discuss focused on immigration.”

— New York Times, “Hospitality and gambling interests check shutting of billion-dollar taxation loophole,” by Eric Lipton and Liz Moyer: “In a camber of a tiny 11 days this month, $1 billion in destiny sovereign taxation payments vanished. As congressional leaders were fast braiding together a taxation and spending check of some-more than 2,000 pages, lobbyists swooped in to supplement 54 disproportion that temporarily recorded a loophole sought by a hotel, grill and gambling industries, along with billionaire Wall Street investors, that authorised them to put genuine estate in trusts and equivocate taxes. They won support from a tip Senate Democrat, Harry Reid of Nevada, who responded to appeals from executives of casino companies, politically absolute players and outrageous employers in his state. And a lobbyists even helped breeze a essential language. The small changes, and a outrageous asset they generated, uncover a energy of connected corporate lobbyists to change a outrageous check that is being put together with tiny time for lawmakers to consider. Throughout a legislation, there were thousands of other add-ons and tough to interpret taxation changes.”

— Politico, “Sanders information discuss spotlights absolute gatekeeper,” by Nancy Scola: “At a heart of a Bernie Sanders information disaster is a organisation that functions as a digital plumbing of a Democratic Party: NGP VAN. Democrats are scarcely unconditionally contingent on it, that is because a crack — a association says it’s a initial in a scarcely 20-year story — and a Sanders campaign’s successive cutoff from a complement is so rattling a party. While Sanders competence have defused a strap by apologizing to Clinton during Saturday’s discuss … the border of a repairs finished to both campaigns isn’t nonetheless clear. If zero else, it’s reminded Democrats of a risks of disposition so heavily on one private association to yield a record infrastructure. How such an unsexy apartment of program with an impenetrably acronymed name became both a block and a essence of Democratic politics — ‘I [heart] a VAN’ stickers are everywhere during gatherings of on-going margin operatives — is a story of first-mover advantage and persistence.”


Fox News confronts Carly Fiorina for a made-up story about a troops general. From Talking Points Memo: “Chris Wallace grilled Fiorina (for saying) that Gen. Jack Keane ‘retired early’ after a argue with President Obama. Keane himself seemed on Fox News and denied Fiorina’s claim. On Sunday, Wallace asked her about it. ‘But afterwards there’s Keane who never served in a Obama administration, Wallace said. ‘Says he’s never oral to Barack Obama. Weren’t we usually prosaic wrong about that?’ ‘Well, we was wrong about Keane, yes. He is a difference that proves a rule,’ Fiorina said.”


Christie calls Jeb a deceiver for scornful Trump. From a Washington Examiner: While campaigning Sunday in New Hampshire, Christie criticized Bush for job Trump a “jerk” after Bush told Trump during final week’s discuss that he couldn’t “insult his approach to a presidency.”


— What’s function currently on a discuss trail: Christie will make 3 stops in New Hampshire, and will reason a city gymnasium in New London during 6 p.m. Ben Carson will attend a business discuss in Manchester and a Christmas jubilee in Concord. Bernie Sanders is holding a city gymnasium assembly in Sioux City, Iowa, during 7 p.m. Central. Mike Huckabee will make several stops in Iowa, holding accommodate and greets in Swisher, Van Horn and Marshalltown. Jeb Bush is holding a city gymnasium assembly in Alton, N.H., in a evening. John Kasich is also in New Hampshire, and he will reason dual city halls and and a “Women for Kasich” lunch in Greenland.  Martin O’Malley is holding a city gymnasium in Windham during during 5:45.

— On a Hill: Recess

— At a White House: President Obama is in Hawaii for Christmas vacation.


“I am substantially still going to collect a flowers and a china for state dinners and things like that, nonetheless will positively spin to him, as before presidents have” for “special missions,” Hillary Clinton conspicuous during Saturday’s discuss when asked about what Bill’s purpose will be.


“The long-advertised widen of unseasonably amiable Christmas week continue is on a doorstep, and a regard on Christmas Eve competence good be historic,” the Capital Weather Gang forecasts. “Clouds reduce and thicken currently as a diseased front approaches from a west. Gentle upsurge from a south (around 5-10 mph) helps temperatures strech 50-55.”

— The Redskins stay atop a NFC East with their 7-7 record after the win opposite Buffalo. (Liz Clarke)

— The Capitals routed a New York Rangers, 7-3, during Madison Square Garden. (Isabelle Khurshudyan)

Two masculine proffer firefighters in Prince George’s County have been charged with assault after allegedly violence adult dual womanlike career firefighters and boring them out of a residence in Landover in an apparent brawl over who should put out a fire. (Bowie Patch)

The final spending check pumps a lot of income into a local economy: $557 million for the District’s DHS campus, $390 million toward an FBI campus, $154 million for improvements to Fort Meade and $150 million to Metro. (Jonathan O’Connell and Rachel Weiner)


Ted Cruz and his family put their possess spin on Christmas classics. A funny 90-second video:


Jeb Bush expelled a new web video arguing he is a usually Republican to “shut down” Trump:


John Kasich is perplexing to make a many of a bromance between Trump and Vladimir Putin, observant in a web video a dual “would make restraint good again:”


Tina Fey and Amy Poehler reprise their roles as Sarah Palin and Hillary on SNL:


“SNL” also lampooned a final GOP debate:


Stormtroopers and R2-D2 were speckled in a West Wing on Friday:


Star Wars fans salary a hulk light saber conflict in Los Angeles:


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